With Russia on the verge of capturing Pokrovsk, a strategic city in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv faces a cruelly familiar choice. It could pull back, concede defeat and save lives. Or it could fight on, delaying a symbolic and tactical victory for Moscow but risking heavier losses of its own.
It’s a dilemma that has haunted the Ukrainian military throughout the war, as it has struggled to contain Russian advances. Ukraine chose to hold on amid grinding battles in cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, both of which ultimately fell to Moscow. Critics argued that a timely retreat could have saved soldiers, Kyiv’s most precious resource in a war of attrition against a much larger adversary.
Ukraine’s argument for holding cities as long as possible is that it forces the Russian Army to expend vast numbers of troops, leaving it weakened in the battles to come. There is also a political element, as the two sides wage a battle of narratives. Kyiv wants to prevent Moscow from claiming successes that could sap morale at home and that the Kremlin could use to persuade the Trump administration that supporting Ukraine is a losing wager.
But with parts of Pokrovsk under Russian control and an adjacent city, Myrnohrad, facing the threat of encirclement, military analysts and some Ukrainian commanders worry that Kyiv may now be repeating past mistakes by staying weeks or months longer than necessary.
“Ukraine has previously held certain positions and cities for too long after the conditions became unfavorable,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, who recently visited the front line.
Pokrovsk, with a prewar population of 60,000, would be the largest Ukrainian city to fall since Bakhmut in May 2023. Its capture would give Russia a platform to push north and pursue its stated goal of capturing the Donetsk region, about three-quarters of which it already controls.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged the difficult situation around Pokrovsk, saying that Ukrainian forces are badly outnumbered. But he has shown no sign of preparing to order a retreat. Instead, he visited Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk last week and discussed their needs in defending the area.
