Has Iran lost control of the Strait of Hormuz?

Before the war, some 19 million barrels of crude oil were exported from the Middle East every day. That number slowed to a trickle after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the main route through which this oil traveled. The result was a crippling global energy crisis felt as far away as the Philippines.

But last month, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks oil tankers, the numbers climbed back up to an average of 16 million barrels a day — not back to prewar levels, but not so far off either. Some 6 million barrels of that oil is coming through land pipelines and ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But 10 million are making it through the strait itself.

How did this happen?

The story of the Iran war has in many ways become the story of Iran closing the strait, and the U.S. trying to reopen it — and so the fact that oil is moving again feels like a big deal. And in some ways, it is. The U.S. has clearly reduced Iran’s leverage over this critical waterway.

But that doesn’t mean that the price of oil is going down any time soon. And it doesn’t mean the U.S. is on the verge of winning the war either. It could even make Iran more dangerous.

Oil is flowing again

I spoke to my colleague Peter Eavis, who has been monitoring oil flows since the start of the war. He told me that Iran is still attacking ships in the strait practically every day. But oil is making it out simply because more tankers are now willing to take the risk of trying to cross. And a combination of two things helps explain why.

Since the spring, the U.S. military has been offering air protection to tankers willing to take their chances through the strait. Initially, there were few takers.

But as the war has dragged on, countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have become increasingly desperate to get their oil out. They’re now offering huge amounts of money — ten times more than prewar fees in some cases, Peter said — to tanker operators. Enough that many are now are saying yes.

The upshot is that oil is flowing again, but at a huge cost — to the U.S. military, to oil-exporting Gulf nations and in human lives. About two dozen crew members have died in Iranian and American strikes in the past month, Peter said.