We’re looking at the potential for a U.S. attack on Iran.
In Tehran yesterday.Credit…
Is the United States about to wage war on Iran?
American forces have taken positions across the Middle East, with two aircraft carrier groups and dozens of fighter jets, bombers, and other planes poised within striking distance of the country. President Trump said Friday he might use them in a limited strike to pressure Iran to end its nuclear program.
Trump badly wants that deal, which his predecessors chased — and never realized. He blew up nuclear enrichment sites in Iran last year. In talks last week, he pushed Iran for an agreement, but so far it has not assented. “Bad things will happen” if Tehran doesn’t sign a deal, Trump said last week. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”
Now he has arrayed a force in the region to support a major conflict — one that could potentially last longer, and be deadlier, than last year’s 12-day war on Iran or the commando attack that removed Venezuela’s president in January. Trump has told advisers that if an initial strike fails to move Iran to end its nuclear program, he may mount a bigger attack to drive its leaders from power.
For its part, Iran says that if the nation is attacked, “all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets,” and that the “United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences.” This story describes some of Iran’s possible targets.
What justification does the White House give for a possible attack? Trump aides have mentioned a desire to protect protesters there, after the government killed thousands of them last month, and a wish to knock over the regime by removing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
That would certainly bolster what still seems to be the main motivation: atomic weapons. Last year, Trump said his attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Intelligence reports, however, cast the strikes more as setbacks. There have been signs recently that Iran is hardening its bunkers and getting ready to enrich more uranium.
Despite these drumbeats of war, Trump hasn’t sought approval from Congress, nor has he directly addressed the American people. Tomorrow is the annual State of the Union address, and perhaps we’ll learn more when he delivers it.
How Iran feels
In Tehran this month.Credit…
In the meantime, though, I wondered how Iranians are feeling about all of this. So I reached out to Erika Solomon, The Times’s bureau chief for Iran and Iraq, to ask. Erika told me there’s a sense of overwhelming grief in the country right now and a belief that the die has already been cast. An attack, many Iranians feel, is a near certainty. As she put it:
There are three major themes to the mood right now in Iran:
Mourning and division. Many Iranians are still wrestling with the shock and pain of seeing thousands killed in the crackdown on nationwide protests early this year. They are weary. The opposition is also fractured about what the future should look like. Others still support the government to varying degrees — or are simply wary of the alternatives. Many Iranians we speak to say they’ve never seen Iran as polarized as it is now. As the country shot off fireworks to celebrate the anniversary of the revolution earlier this month, we saw videos and recordings where government supporters chanted “God is great” while other people on nearby rooftops yelled “Death to Khamenei,” the supreme leader.
Defiance and exasperation. This has surprised even some Iran experts: Many people keep voicing their anger despite a fearsome and ongoing crackdown. Even though dissidents are still going to jail — and losing their businesses and property — we see people signing letters of protest, organizing sit-ins, refusing to take university exams, and more. University students opened the new semester this weekend with demonstrations. The economic crisis that first drove people to the streets in December has not ended. It’s only getting worse. We talk to middle-class families who have long since stopped buying meat for their meals. Now they’re choosing between paying rent or buying food. Iranians are bracing for the possibility of U.S. strikes at a moment when they are emotionally and materially devastated.
Anticipation and fatalism. The biggest question looming over every Iranian right now is: Will America strike? Many Iranians we speak to are extremely worried for their safety and don’t think American bombs can solve their problems. And yet a few tell us they welcome a strike because they’ve lost hope that there is any other way to get rid of the government and are willing to take a chance on foreign intervention — despite having seen how it went for their neighbors in Iraq and Afghanistan. No matter how they feel, there is a growing sense that strikes are inevitable, and the only option for them now is to prepare.
Those who can afford it are stocking up on canned goods and batteries. One blogger posted tips for how to organize two weeks’ worth of supplies. In the replies, Iranians asked how they were supposed to gather food for an extended war when they couldn’t feed themselves today.
Related: Iran’s government sees capitulating to the U.S. on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles as riskier to its survival than going to war, analysts say.
TARIFF CHAOS
It was a frenzied weekend for trade. The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, and he promised to revive them quickly through a different law. First, he said he would impose a new, global tariff of 10 percent. On Saturday, he raised the figure to 15 percent.
Trump is limited in what he can do. Under the law he has now invoked, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, tariffs may last only 150 days unless Congress extends them. And they’re capped at 15 percent, so the president can’t lift them again.
Now that the old tariffs have been deemed illegal, do the businesses that paid them get their money back? The Trump administration is expected to argue in court that companies lack standing to claim a refund if they passed the tariff costs to consumers by charging more.
So if a company didn’t charge consumers more, would the government get to keep the now-invalidated tax? It’s an open question, and thousands of companies have filed lawsuits arguing they deserve refunds. This could take years to litigate.
Read more about what has happened since the ruling.
For more
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The U.S. trade representative said there would be no change in the Trump administration’s tariff policy after the ruling.
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Have Trump’s tariffs been working? In the video below, our chief economics correspondent, Ben Casselman, breaks it down. Click to play.
Were Trump’s Tariffs Working?
THE LATEST NEWS
Winter Storm
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A powerful winter storm continues to pound the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. You can track the storm here.
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More than 200,000 customers in the Mid-Atlantic region are without power. Forecasters warn that the storm’s high winds may bring down power lines.
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New York’s public schools are closed today because of snow, and there won’t be remote learning. The city’s last official snow day was in 2019.
Shooting at Mar-a-Lago
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Officers, including Secret Service agents, fatally shot an armed man at Mar-a-Lago yesterday morning.
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The man was 21 and from North Carolina, and he had a company that specialized in handmade drawings of golf courses.
The Economy
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Trump claims that the U.S. has undergone an economic turnaround since he returned to office. But data show that trends on jobs and inflation haven’t changed much.
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Although inflation has slowed in the U.S., many families are still struggling to afford basics like housing and health care.
Around the World
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Mexico: The government said it had killed the nation’s most wanted cartel boss, known as El Mencho. Armed groups set fire to cars and buildings across the country after his death.
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Denmark: The country rejected Trump’s plan to send a “great hospital boat” to Greenland, saying there was no need for it. The prime minister posted on Instagram that she was “happy to live in a country where there is free and equal access to health care for everyone.”
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Middle East: Arab leaders condemned comments by Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, that implied Israel could control territory from Iraq to Egypt. He said his comments were taken out of context.
OPINIONS
Under Trump, America has entered an era where science is a political weapon rather than a tool for the collective good, Jeneen Interlandi writes.
When it comes to exercise, consistency is more important than optimization, Emily Oster argues.
MORNING READS
Holy remains: Bones believed to be those of St. Francis of Assisi will be on public display for a month to commemorate the 800th anniversary of his death. Hundreds of thousands have already registered to see them. Read more here.
Your pick: The most-clicked link in The Morning yesterday was about the status of T.S.A. PreCheck lanes at airports.
Metropolitan Diary: Respect the pizza.
TODAY’S NUMBER
11 million
— That was the decrease in foreign visitors to the United States last year compared with the year before. The U.S. was the world’s only major travel destination with a decline in international tourists.
OLYMPIC HOCKEY
Men’s hockey: An overtime goal by Jack Hughes gave the U.S. a dramatic 2-1 win over rival Canada in the gold-medal game. It was the American men’s first gold since the “Miracle on Ice” in 1980.
Something is missing: Hughes lost at least three teeth to the high stick of a Canadian player, Sam Bennett. Hughes scored the winning goal with a bloody face, making him an internet sensation.
In memoriam: Team U.S.A. honored Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau, the prominent hockey brothers who died after being struck by an alleged drunken driver in 2024, by bringing Johnny’s two kids onto the ice for a team picture.
Sell-off: After the American victory, a Canadian hockey fan listed a rare autographed Jack Hughes rookie card on eBay for 1 million Canadian dollars (about $730,000) with the caption, “I hate you, Jack Hughes. You ruined my day.”
More on the Olympics
Skiing: Eileen Gu of China defended her freeski halfpipe title, earning her third medal of these Games and her sixth overall.
Medals: Which country won the Winter Olympics? We (over)analyzed the medal count.
RECIPE OF THE DAY
I’ve been making these cold sesame noodles for close to 20 years, after nailing down the recipe with help from the Chinese food impresario Ed Schoenfeld, who died in 2022. The noodles should be soft and luxurious, bathed in an emulsified mixture of sesame paste and peanut butter, rendered vivid and fiery by chile oil and sweetened by sugar, with a rice-vinegar tang. Whisk the sauce and taste it before combining with the noodles. “The art is in the balance,” Eddie told me, “between the salt and sweet, the sweet and the fire, and the fire and the acidity.”
THE BRITISH OSCARS
“One Battle After Another” won best film at this year’s British Academy Film Awards, better known as the BAFTAs. The movie took six awards, including best director and best supporting actor.
Jessie Buckley took the leading-actress award for her role in “Hamnet,” following up on her Golden Globe win. In the night’s only surprise, the leading-actor prize went to Robert Aramayo, the star of “I Swear,” a movie about an activist with Tourette’s syndrome.
Paddington Bear, presenting an award, had a hard time opening the envelope. “It’s not easy with paws,” he said. And the Prince and Princess of Wales walked the red carpet in coordinated outfits.
More on culture
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The music artist with the largest audience on YouTube these days isn’t Bad Bunny or Taylor Swift. It’s Slxughter, a producer of what’s called phonk music — the soundtrack to countless YouTube Shorts, TikToks, and Instagram Reels. He and other phonk-makers around the world are getting rich.
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Caroline Goldfarb, a comedy writer and film producer who started a tinned-fish company during the pandemic, recently married Michael Gropper, a well-known shofar player who once blew his (literal) horn at a Los Angeles Rams game. Click.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS
Improve your balance and strength with these seven exercises.
Crisp your grilled cheese — and your bacon and chicken thighs, too — with this stainless-steel cooking weight recommended by the diner employees at Wirecutter.
Take our news quiz.
GAMES
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was lurking.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Crossplay, and Strands.
