For much of the past year, Lebanon’s government has walked a tightrope in its dealings with the Iranian-backed armed group Hezbollah as it has moved to disarm the militants and curb their influence in Lebanese politics.
Now, as Lebanon faces a rapidly escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, the country is waiting to see if the government seizes on this moment to take decisive action against Hezbollah — and how the group will respond.
Overnight, the Israeli military pounded Hezbollah in the southern edge of the Lebanese capital with explosions that could be heard across the city. The bombardment displaced thousands of people from the densely packed area who spent the night on the streets of downtown Beirut.
“This is the tipping point,” said Sami Nader, the director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University of Beirut. “Either we have the dark scenario where the army clashes with Hezbollah and there is civil strife, or Hezbollah abides by the government decision and they disarm.”
When it comes to Hezbollah, Lebanese officials have had to strike a delicate balance over the past year: appeasing demands from the United States and other allies to act quickly and decisively against the group while proceeding cautiously to avoid clashes between Lebanese soldiers and Hezbollah militants, a scenario that many fear could unleash civil conflict in Lebanon.
But when Hezbollah began firing at Israel this week in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, setting off more deadly fighting with Israel, that calculation appeared to unravel.
On Monday, the Lebanese government lashed out at Hezbollah, declaring its military activities illegal and effectively designating what was once the country’s most powerful force as an outlaw. Hezbollah retorted with a veiled warning that if the government stuck to its decision, it could ignite internal strife.
A weak government “should refrain from creating additional internal problems that could further inflame the state of tension and unrest,” a senior Hezbollah official, Mohammad Raad, said in a statement.
In response, government officials have doubled down, in what appeared to be an effort to root out all Iranian military influence in the country. The government announced on Thursday that it would crack down on any Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members in Lebanon and deport them.
A yearlong war between Hezbollah and Israel erupted when the militants launched rockets at Israeli positions in October 2023 in solidarity with Hamas, another Iranian-backed group, which led a deadly attack against Israel that same month.
The Hezbollah assault prompted Israel to respond with a barrage of attacks that ended in a cease-fire November 2024 and left much of Lebanon and Hezbollah battered. Many analysts say that after that war, Revolutionary Guards members filled Hezbollah’s depleted ranks in Lebanon and took over much of the group’s military decision making.
The Lebanese Armed Forces also announced this week that they had detained 26 Lebanese nationals at army checkpoints “for illegally possessing weapons and ammunition.” While the army statement did not mention Hezbollah by name, it suggested that the army was moving forward with carrying out the government’s decision.
