{"id":177925,"date":"2024-06-26T14:06:37","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T13:06:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/?p=177925"},"modified":"2024-06-26T14:06:37","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T13:06:37","slug":"hezbollahs-axis-of-resistance-allies-waiting-in-reserve-to-fight-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/hezbollahs-axis-of-resistance-allies-waiting-in-reserve-to-fight-israel\/","title":{"rendered":"Hezbollah\u2019s \u2018axis of resistance\u2019 allies waiting in reserve to fight Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analysts believe that an expanded conflict could encourage foreign fighters to support Hezbollah and fight Israel.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"People<\/div>\n

People walk past posters of late Hamas leader Ahmad Yassin, late chief of Iran’s Quds Force Qassem Suleimani, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Houthi leader Mahdi al-Mashat at the Sabeen Square in Sanaa, Yemen [File: Khaled<\/em><\/p>\n

The most closely watched border in the Middle East lies between Israel and Lebanon, the site of eight months of tit-for-tat attacks and a possible Israeli land assault on its northern neighbour.<\/p>\n

Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to intensify attacks, saying they\u2019re necessary to defeat Hezbollah and return 90,000 Israelis evacuated from their homes in the north since fighting started in early October.<\/p>\n

But as Israel\u2019s rhetoric escalates, Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah has responded with defiance, warning that such a conflict would not only impact Israel more than it thinks, but that it would be felt regionally.<\/p>\n

Backing Hezbollah up regionally, analysts say, is the so-called \u201caxis of resistance\u201d, a regional network of armed groups, backed by Iran, who have started to make their presence known since Israel launched its brutal war on Gaza.<\/p>\n

On October 7, a Hamas-led attack on Israel killed 1,139 people and took approximately 240 captive into Gaza. Israel immediately launched an assault that has decimated Gaza. Hezbollah began engaging Israel over the border the next day, aiming to divide its focus on Gaza.<\/p>\n

Support, but how?<\/h2>\n

\u201cThe axis will participate in confronting any military action by Israel against Lebanon,\u201d Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

However, when a recent media report suggested that non-Lebanese armed fighters were ready to volunteer to head for Lebanon to fight with Hezbollah, a brief flurry of questions arose. How would the \u201caxis\u201d participate? Would it be the groups or individuals heading randomly into Lebanon?<\/p>\n

\n
A few days prior, on June 19, Hezbollah\u2019s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had said the group was rejecting offers from leaders of armed groups who were offering to send their foot soldiers to Lebanon.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cWe told them: \u2018Thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,\u201d Nasrallah said in the speech, adding that Hezbollah already had more than 100,000 fighters.<\/p>\n

If Israel shifts its focus from Gaza to Lebanon, the regional calculus could change as the scope widens.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the United States of America continues to support this usurping entity and attacks Lebanon and attacks Hezbollah, America should know that it has made all its interests in the region and Iraq a target and a danger,\u201d Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Asa\u2019ib Ahl al Haq, an Iraqi member of the axis of resistance, wrote on social media on Monday.<\/p>\n

\"Hezbollah
Hezbollah fighters at the funeral of commander Wissam al-Tawil, in Khirbet Selm, Lebanon, January 9, 2024 [Hussein Malla\/AP Photo]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The term \u201cresistance\u201d in \u201caxis of resistance\u201d refers to the largely Shia, pro-Iranian regional network\u2019s opposition to the United States and Israel, which means the members could choose any number of regional targets, in addition to attacking Israel from the locations they\u2019re based in, alone or in concert.<\/p>\n

Growing coordination<\/h2>\n

As Hezbollah cemented itself as a regional power and a pivot in the axis of resistance, its influence extended into Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where it coordinates logistics, operations and training with like-minded groups.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany of the groups, especially those that are transnationally inclined in the axis, will be asked by Hezbollah leaders in different countries to help and support them,\u201d Renad Mansour, Iraq Initiative project director at Chatham House, said.<\/p>\n

Those groups could include parts of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the\u00a0Houthis in Yemen<\/a>, or foreign and local fighters in Syria that have backed President Bashar al-Assad in his war against the country\u2019s opposition.<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps more than any other group in the axis of resistance, the Houthis view their relationship with Hezbollah as foundational,\u201d Nick Brumfield, an independent Yemen analyst, said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHezbollah has been the main contractor in providing axis assistance to the Houthis for years, and as a fellow Shia Arab movement, there is arguably a greater affinity between the two than between the Houthis and Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

Until now, the Houthis have mostly focused on attacking vessels in the Red Sea they deem to be connected to Israel. But should cross-border attacks by Israel and Hezbollah intensify, maritime traffic in the Mediterranean may also face disruption.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, the Houthis and the\u00a0Islamic Resistance in Iraq<\/a>\u00a0claimed a\u00a0joint raid<\/a>\u00a0on four vessels in Israel\u2019s Haifa port.<\/p>\n

While this attack may have established a new dynamic, the two groups have coordinated for years. A Houthi representative has long been present in Baghdad, while some PMF groups have had longer, historic relationships with the Houthis, according to Mansour.<\/p>\n

These groups will likely want to mobilise should Israel and Hezbollah\u2019s engagement escalate.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne prospect will be intensifying the joint attacks carried out by the IRI and Ansarullah [the Houthis] and perhaps expanding that small partnership to include more armed actors,\u201d Tamer Badawi, an Iraq analyst focusing on politics and security, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose attacks are likely to be incremental toward Israel corresponding to the rhythm of [Israel\u2019s] attacks on southern Lebanon or other parts of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the Houthis are making it more challenging and riskier for ships to navigate to Israel through the Red Sea, targeting the ones bound to Israel via the Med[iterranean] \u2026 would apply extra pressure on Israel,\u201d Badawi said.<\/p>\n

\"Houthi\"
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea delivers a statement at a pro-Palestinian rally in Sanaa on March 15, 2024. The Yemeni group has conducted repeated attacks on ships it says are linked to Israel [File: Khaled Abdullah\/Reuters]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Much like in the Red Sea, attacks on ships do not need to directly strike sea traffic to affect Israel, shipping companies and the global economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs insurance costs increase, importing costs increase, thus adding to the economic pressure [on Israel],\u201d Badawi added.<\/p>\n

Is a wider war coming?<\/h2>\n

How an expanded war between Israel and Hezbollah would go is still not known, despite the two having intensified their rhetoric in recent weeks.<\/p>\n

Israeli officials declared last week that\u00a0the country is ready<\/a>\u00a0for an \u201call-out war\u201d with Lebanon.<\/p>\n

Nasrallah countered with the prospect of regional allies coming to Hezbollah\u2019s aid and\u00a0a threat to Cyprus<\/a>\u00a0should it cooperate with Israel, despite Cypriot denials.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the strategic messaging response and it is a parallel conflict to the physical combat on the ground,\u201d said Seth Krummrich, a former special forces officer who is now at Global Guardian risk management firm.<\/p>\n

This messaging is occurring on the back of\u00a0US envoy Amos Hochstein\u2019s visits<\/a>\u00a0to the region and ongoing negotiations over a\u00a0potential ceasefire in Gaza<\/a>. Krummrich said each side is trying to tell its domestic audiences that they will not be bullied, while also showing their opponents that \u201cthey don\u2019t hold all the cards\u201d.<\/p>\n

Over the last eight months, analysts have maintained that there is a possibility of a limited ground invasion or \u2013 the more likely scenario \u2013 an expanded aerial war in which Israel targets areas that are Hezbollah strongholds, as well as Lebanese infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Al Jazeera\u2019s Sanad Agency has not found a significant Israeli troop build-up on the border with Lebanon. But cross-border attacks intensified in recent weeks, with Israel\u00a0killing a top Hezbollah commander<\/a>\u00a0and Hezbollah responding with its largest barrage of rockets and missiles since October.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Israel has also reportedly continued to use\u00a0white phosphorus<\/a>\u00a0in south Lebanon.<\/p>\n

That intensification could continue, with a \u201cstrategic escalation this week going into next week as [Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu visits the US\u201d, Krummrich said.<\/p>\n

In an expanded aerial war, the \u201caxis of resistance\u201d might continue to launch attacks on Israeli bases and targets outside the country.<\/p>\n

\"Lebanon's
Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address during a ceremony, in Beirut\u2019s southern suburbs, Lebanon May 31, 2024. [Mohamed Azakir\/Reuters]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In a recent video published by Hezbollah, the group showed what appears to be a series of targets inside Israel and spots in the Mediterranean Sea that it would seemingly target.<\/p>\n

A land invasion, however, could lead to foreign fighters flowing into Lebanese territory, should the group feel it to be necessary.<\/p>\n

Nasrallah said the group has more than 100,000 fighters and is already \u201coverwhelmed\u201d with the number of personnel at its disposal. But Israeli boots on Lebanese territory could change the status quo.<\/p>\n

\u201cResistance axis groups have primarily wanted to use Israel\u2019s assault on [the] Palestinians as a way to put themselves out as champions on the right side, and to challenge other Arab countries who have normalised relations [with Israel] but not necessarily to go and fight a war in southern Lebanon or in Palestine,\u201d Mansour said. \u201cI think this changes if you have an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUntil now, the appetite has been more domestic\u2026 but in the course of an Israeli invasion or escalation these groups will be asked to support and that will change the equation.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts believe that an expanded conflict could encourage foreign fighters to support Hezbollah and fight Israel. People walk past posters…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1609,1,1662,136,1084],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-177925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conflict","category-home","category-israel-palestine-conflict-news","category-news","category-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pa6gfq-KhL","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=177925"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177925\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":177927,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177925\/revisions\/177927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=177925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=177925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=177925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}