{"id":175530,"date":"2024-04-18T12:19:46","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T11:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/?p=175530"},"modified":"2024-04-18T12:19:46","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T11:19:46","slug":"how-joe-biden-can-win-pennsylvania-his-rosebud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asyarfs.org\/how-joe-biden-can-win-pennsylvania-his-rosebud\/","title":{"rendered":"How Joe Biden Can Win Pennsylvania, His Rosebud"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"President\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 President Biden is a native son of Pennsylvania and gets intuitively how the state is a microcosm for America.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Let\u2019s talk about why President Biden is spending three days in Pennsylvania this week \u2014 a lot of time by campaign standards. By now, you probably know that just\u00a0a few swing states are pivotal<\/a>\u00a0to winning the White House in November. For Mr. Biden, the Keystone State is the most crucial.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just that Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes \u2014 the biggest haul of any battleground. And it\u2019s not just that it is part of the Blue Wall, the string of industrial states that helped Democrats win the presidency for years until Donald Trump cracked it in 2016. This fight is also personal: Mr. Biden is a native son of Pennsylvania who spent part of his childhood there, identifies with its working-class, regular-folk vibe and gets intuitively how the state is a microcosm for America. If Scranton Joe cannot hang onto his Rosebud, he is probably in big trouble nationally.<\/p>\n

The goodish news for Mr. Biden is that he appears to be running neck-and-neck here with Mr. Trump, according to\u00a0polling<\/a>\u00a0and campaign insiders, unlike in some other swing states where he is struggling a bit more. The tougher news is that many Democrats anticipate a tick-tight race, and it\u2019s not yet clear what will energize and turn out voters. \u201cMy big fear is that people are exhausted by the chaos,\u201d says U.S. Representative Mary Gay Scanlon, who hails from one of the suburban \u201ccollar counties\u201d around Philadelphia.<\/p>\n

So what does Team Biden need to do to prevail? High-profile visits like Mr. Biden\u2019s three-day swing this week are important. But they are a tiny piece of what it takes to win a place as sprawling and complicated as Pennsylvania. To get a clearer sense of the puzzle, I set about picking the brains of over a dozen strategists, organizers, elected officials and other state political experts. A smattering of common themes and strategies bubbled up \u2014 some easier than others for the president and his campaign to tackle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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I started by approaching Gov. Josh Shapiro, a member of Mr. Biden\u2019s\u00a0campaign advisory board<\/a>\u00a0who is considered a Democratic rock star since winning the state by nearly 15 points in 2022. (Mr. Biden squeaked by here in 2020 by 1.2 points. Though, to be fair, Mr. Shapiro had\u00a0a truly lousy opponent<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

One story stuck with me from talking with the governor. It\u2019s a bit canned, sure, but it made me think about some of the hurdles Mr. Biden is facing. Asked if anything took him by surprise in his own run, Mr. Shapiro told me about his first TV ad, which showed him sitting around the Sabbath dinner table with his family, and how, afterward, voters would come up to him to share their own faith stories and traditions. \u201cThe ad allowed them to speak to me in a personal way,\u201d he recalled.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Gov.<\/picture><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>
Gov. Josh Shapiro introduced President Biden at a campaign event in Scranton, Pa.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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As Mr. Biden works to sell voters on his accomplishments, he will have to do it across wildly different parts of Pennsylvania.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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While Mr. Biden can emote with the best of them, many voters, especially among his base, just aren\u2019t feeling that personal bond these days. Finding ways to reconnect, to make people feel understood and listened to, is one of his trickiest challenges.<\/p>\n

Part of this will be letting voters know that he has been working for them. It\u2019s important to spell out for people \u201cwhat you delivered, how your work positively impacted their lives,\u201d Mr. Shapiro says of his experience. It also means addressing the things that still need fixing \u2014 making clear that, yes, you feel voters\u2019 pain. \u201cI\u2019ve heard people loud and clear. Things cost a lot. They want relief,\u201d said the governor, stressing that you have to \u201cacknowledge the challenges people feel.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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As Mr. Biden works to sell voters on his accomplishments, and himself, he will have to do it across wildly different parts of Pennsylvania. Winning here means playing everywhere, say the state\u2019s political hands \u2014 pretty much all of whom can recite the vote margins a Democrat needs to aim for in Philadelphia, its collar counties, Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh), this western enclave, that area of the Lehigh Valley and even the \u201cT counties\u201d running up the center and across the top of the state that typically go Republican. Boiled down, the blue-team blueprint is: run up the numbers in and around Philly, do well in Allegheny and other select spots and hold down Republicans\u2019 margins of victory in the more rural areas.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The Biden team sees potential in Lancaster County, Pa., where it opened a local office last month.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Trump supporters gathered outside a Biden campaign event on Tuesday.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Downtown Scranton.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u201cYou can\u2019t rely on the places traditionally friendly to us. You have to close the margins in places we\u2019re not going to win,\u201d said Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, a Democrat. Take the reliably red counties of Westmoreland, in the Pittsburgh region, and rural Northumberland, he offered: \u201cYou can lose 60-40, but you can\u2019t lose 70-30. It makes a huge difference.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMargins matter!\u201d confirmed State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, who is running statewide for auditor general. This is especially true if turnout in Philadelphia is not so hot \u2014 which, Democrats say, has been the case for several years. But we\u2019ll get to that in a minute.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Making inroads into hostile territory was crucial to both Mr. Shapiro\u2019s and Senator John Fetterman\u2019s victories in 2022. And while a presidential campaign is a different animal, some of the basics are transferable. Team Biden will need to build up its campaign infrastructure and outreach early in places where Democrats usually get clobbered.<\/p>\n

So far, the campaign seems to be taking this challenge to heart.<\/p>\n

Lancaster County is one of those places that don\u2019t show Democrats a lot of love. Mr. Trump won this Republican stronghold by\u00a0nearly 16 points<\/a>\u00a0in 2020. Mr. Shapiro\u00a0narrowly lost it<\/a>\u00a0to the MAGA-tastic Doug Mastriano in 2022. But the Biden team sees potential here and began investing resources early this cycle. The campaign\u00a0opened a local office<\/a>\u00a0last month \u2014 one of 14 already up and running in the state \u2014 making a big to-do about the event and inviting MSNBC to cover it. Campaign hiring is gearing up, and volunteers are already out knocking on voters\u2019 doors multiple times a week.<\/p>\n

Last Saturday, I tagged along for some canvassing with Stella Sexton, the vice chairwoman of the county Democratic Committee. Armed with a list of registered Democrats, she was reminding people that the primary was this coming Tuesday and ensuring they knew their polling place was at a local funeral home. Getting people involved in the primary makes it more likely that they will show up for the general election, she told me.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n