Although he dons different personas, the strongman bona fides of Prabowo Subianto date to when Indonesia was a dictatorship led by his former father-in-law.
He hoped to succeed Indonesia’s longtime dictator. He ordered the kidnappings of pro-democracy activists. He was accused of atrocities during the ruthless military occupation of East Timor. He has said elections run counter to his country’s culture.
Even so, Prabowo Subianto has spent the past two decades trying his hand at democratic politics, donning different personas in multiple attempts to become Indonesia’s leader.
Now, a month before the next election, nearly every poll shows Mr. Prabowo, 72, leading in the first round of voting. His rise, with the help of a running mate who is the son of the popular departing president, Joko Widodo, has alarmed millions of Indonesians who still remember the brutal and kleptocratic rule of Suharto, Mr. Prabowo’s former boss and father-in-law.
A victory for Mr. Prabowo, his critics warn, would revive a dark past.
“What will happen is the death of democracy,” said Hendardi, the director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace. Like many Indonesians, he goes by one name. “We have long been against Prabowo,” he added, “and with our limited power, we were still able to prevent him from moving forward. But now he has gained this support.”
On the campaign trail, Mr. Prabowo, who is the current defense minister, has dismissed concerns about his track record.
But he has continued to display his strongman bona fides. At a presidential debate this month, Mr. Prabowo talked about the need to develop a strong military, saying without it, a nation “will be crushed,” just as in Gaza today.
He is in a three-way race with Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, and Ganjar Pranowo, who ran Central Java.
To win outright on Feb. 14, Mr. Prabowo would need to clinch at least 51 percent of the vote. Surveys show that he is far ahead of his rivals, but his support tops off around 46 percent, implying he will probably be forced into a runoff in June and likely to face stiffer competition.
For years, a Prabowo presidency was considered a remote possibility in Indonesia, one of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant democracies.
To many Indonesians, Mr. Prabowo is a symbol of the 32-year reign of Suharto. Following Suharto’s 1998 ouster, he was discharged from the Indonesian military after the armed forces found he was involved in the abduction and torture of pro-democracy activists. More than a dozen remain missing and are feared dead.
Ucok Munandar Siahaan was a 21-year-old student when he vanished on May 15, 1998. His father, Paian Siahaan, 76, discovered later that he had been helping detained anti-government activists. For decades, he has been pressing the authorities for answers.
Every night, Mr. Paian said he prayed the same prayer: “God, please save him.” In recent months, he has added another one: that Mr. Prabowo would not become president.
“In my mind, he will not be elected because of our prayers, the prayers of the oppressed people,” he said.
Mr. Prabowo’s record on human rights — which also includes accusations that his feared Kopassus special forces slaughtered hundreds in a crackdown in East Timor — led the United States to bar him from entering the country for years.
He was never charged in a criminal court.
