US President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine appears poised to hand key concessions to Russia, leaving Kyiv and its European supporters on the sidelines as they face the prospect of a peace deal made over their heads.
But they aren’t the only major players grappling with the fallout of Trump’s pivot to Russia that has upended years of US foreign policy in a burst of rapid-fire diplomacy.
In Beijing, too, the breakneck turn of events is seen to be raising questions about how the US peace drive will impact Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s carefully wrought partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin – and China’s precarious relations with the Trump administration.
Just weeks ago, China appeared set for a key role in Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts. The US leader had repeatedly suggested he could work with Xi, using China’s economic sway over Russia to help end the conflict – important leverage for Beijing as it aims to avert a trade war with the world’s largest economy.
That would have aligned with Beijing’s longstanding efforts to present itself as a neutral party and voice of the Global South that is ready to broker peace in the grinding conflict – even as NATO accused it of supplying Moscow’s defense industry with dual-use goods. China defends its “normal trade.”
Now, Beijing finds itself neither involved in the negotiations as a Russian ally nor a voice of global gravitas – so far, at least, left on the outside of the swift developments that observers say have surprised Chinese officials – and sent them scrambling to find an upside.
A ‘reverse Nixon’?
The stakes are high for Xi, who for years has assiduously cultivated both a personal bond with his “old friend” Putin and his country’s relations with Russia, seeing his northern neighbor as a pivotal partner in a larger power struggle with the West.
The Chinese leader took a calculated risk as Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border three years ago. His choice not to condemn that invasion and have his country serve as Putin’s lifeline – lapping up Russian oil and supplying Moscow with key goods – lost Beijing the trust of Europe and galvanized American allies in Asia to work more closely with NATO.
Chinese officials in recent days have voiced approval of the “agreement” between the US and Russia to start peace talks.
“China supports all efforts conducive to peace talks,” top diplomat Wang Yi said at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council Tuesday, the same day top Russian and US officials met in Saudi Arabia to lay the groundwork for negotiations on ending the fighting in Ukraine.
But comments from American officials in recent days are likely to have drawn attention from Beijing to potential underlying US objectives as it works with Russia.
Top US diplomat Marco Rubio named the possibility for future “geopolitical and economic cooperation” between Washington and Moscow as among four key points discussed in Riyadh.
Days earlier, the Trump administration’s Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told a panel discussion in Munich that the US hoped “to force” Putin into actions he was “uncomfortable with,” which could include disrupting Russia’s alliances with Iran, North Korea – and China.
Observers are skeptical that Washington could shatter the Russia-China relationship, given their deep alignment against the US-led order and Moscow’s entrenched economic dependence on Beijing.
But any worries that may be playing out in China about whether Trump – a leader who’s repeatedly professed his admiration for both Putin and Xi – could unwind their bond is likely underscored by the echoes of past mistrust between the neighbors.
Bitter territorial disputes along their lengthy shared border erupted in conflict between Soviet Russia and a young People’s Republic of China in 1969 and were only largely resolved in the 1990s.
