The labor market added 353,000 jobs in January, far more than expected, in a sign that economic growth remains vigorous.
Stocks are clinging on to gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.3 percent, after the much hotter-than-expected jobs numbers. Some investors worry that the data will prolong an environment of high interest rates, with the two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations, moving sharply higher.
S&P 500
Jan. 31
Feb. 1
Feb. 2
4,840
4,860
4,880
4,900
4,920
14 minutes ago
The closely watched University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment released this morning rose in January to the highest point since July 2021, suggesting consumers have an increasingly rosy outlook on the economy. The survey also showed that consumer expectations that inflation would continue are easing.
22 minutes ago
President Biden, quite predictably, celebrated the banner report. “America’s economy is the strongest in the world. Today, we saw more proof,” he said in a statement.
22 minutes ago
Mr. Biden also continued to acknowledge more work to be done on bringing down costs for consumers, which remains a huge concern for voters.
Job gains remain rapid, unemployment is near a historic low and wage gains are robust nearly two years into the Federal Reserve’s campaign to cool the economy with higher interest rates — an outcome that has surprised policymakers and economic forecasters alike.
At this time last year, Fed officials were predicting that unemployment would have spiked to 4.6 percent by now. Instead, it stands at 3.7 percent.
Central bankers have for months said that they were hearing anecdotal evidence that the job market had begun to slow down: The Fed’s recent Beige Book summaries of anecdotal reports from around the country have suggested that hiring was slight or even flat in parts of the country. But while hiring cooled somewhat last year, no big fissures have shown through to the actual data.
In fact, there are signs that the labor market is still very solid — something Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged this week.
“We’ve had a very strong labor market, and we’ve had inflation coming down,” Mr. Powell said. “So I think whereas a year ago, we were thinking that we needed to see some softening in the economy, that hasn’t been the case. We look at stronger growth — we don’t look at it as a problem.”
Mr. Powell and his colleagues have suggested that the labor market has come back into balance as the supply of workers has recovered, something that has been helped along by a rebound in immigration and a recent jump in labor force participation. The number of job openings in the economy has slowly nudged down.
But few if any economists expected job gains to remain this robust at a time when higher interest rates were expected to meaningfully weigh down the economy. In fact, many forecasters were predicting an outright recession early last year.
The question for the Fed is what it means if the job market not only fails to slow down as anticipated, but actually accelerates again. While one month of data does not make a trend, officials are likely to keep an eye on strong hiring and wage growth.
Mr. Powell said this week that robust growth in and of itself would not worry the Fed — or necessarily prevent them from lowering interest rates this year — so long as inflation continued to come down. But central bankers could become more wary if solid wage gains and a booming economy help to keep consumers spending so much that it gives companies the wherewithal to keep raising prices.
“If there was a real concern that we were getting a re-acceleration, it might get them to pause a little bit,” said Kathy Bostjancic, the chief economist at Nationwide. But for now, “they’re more apt now to respond to a weakening in the labor market than to continued strength.”
35 minutes ago
Team Biden and its allies, unsurprisingly, are thrilled with this report, as President Biden enters a challenging election year. Bharat Ramamurti, a key economic adviser, and the former deputy director for the National Economic Council, texted this: “Spectacular report across the board. Huge beat in jobs, wages rising robustly, prime-age employment growing. It’s the Energizer Bunny economy.”
43 minutes ago
This jobs report also shows that the recent good news on productivity may keep coming. Average wages rose more than expected, but the average workweek shrank a bit too. That gives a hint that employers may be finding ways to “do more with less.” That’s not ideal for people who want to work overtime hours. But it does tend to drive productivity — which is generally measured as total output in the economy per hour worked by the labor force.
Job growth was strong in 2023. Revised data makes it look even stronger.
The Labor Department on Friday said that employers added 3.1 million jobs last year, more than the 2.7 million initially reported last month. That makes 2023 the best year for job growth since 1999 — not counting the previous two years, when the labor market was still emerging from its pandemic hole.
The revisions were part of an annual process in which monthly estimates are reconciled with data collected by state agencies that is more accurate but less timely. They don’t change the big picture: Job growth has still slowed since the peak of the post-lockdown rehiring boom, but has remained resilient. But the updated data suggest that the slowdown has been even more gradual than previously believed.
The payroll estimates that the Labor Department releases each month — including the surprisingly strong January report on Friday morning — are based on a survey of about 122,000 employers. Each year, the government revises those estimates to bring them in line with more definitive data collected by states through their unemployment insurance systems.
The adjustments released on Friday incorporated state-level data through last March. Those figures showed that employment was actually lower, by 266,000 jobs, than previously reported, reflecting somewhat slower job growth in 2022.
But Labor Department statisticians also revised the more recent estimates, using what they learned from the state data to improve their models. Those adjustments showed job growth was stronger in 2023.
As in most years, this year’s revisions were relatively small: only about one-tenth of 1 percent of total employment. But revisions in some sectors were meaningful. Retailers added about 63,000 more jobs in 2023 than previously reported, and the leisure and hospitality sector added 92,000 more jobs than in earlier estimates.
58 minutes ago
Coming into this week, there was a worry that job gains were narrowing to less cyclical sectors like government and health care. Sometimes, that portends weakness in the private sector. The January numbers should leave those worries behind for now as business services, retail and manufacturing all posted solid gains.
The education and health sector leads in job gains
Change in jobs in January 2024, by sector
1 hour ago
The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent in January. We have become so used to these low jobless rates that the news seems routine. But it is impressive by modern standards: The unemployment rate has been below 4 percent for 24 months, an over 50-year record.
Unemployment has been under 4 percent for 24 months
Unemployment rate
Year-over-year percentage change in earnings vs. inflation
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged this week and signaled that their next move is likely to be a cut — but they also suggested that they are in no hurry to make that change. Friday’s jobs data is likely to reinforce their cautious stance.
Employers hired much more rapidly than expected in January, and average hourly earnings climbed 4.5 percent over the year, the fastest pace since September and a reversal after months of cooling.
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, made it clear during his news conference on Wednesday that the central bank is not bent on keeping interest rates high just to slow down the labor market, but the report suggested that the economy might not be cooling quite as much as policymakers had expected.
Given that continued strength, the Fed is unlikely to feel pressure to cut interest rates at its next meeting on March 19-20. Policymakers do not want to hold borrowing costs too high for too long and risk a painful recession, but the data suggests that a possible downturn remains very much at bay. Instead of faltering, the job market is booming.
The central bank’s policy rate is now set to 5.25 to 5.5 percent, a level high enough that economists think it will cool the economy as it trickles through financial markets and weighs on mortgage, credit card and business borrowing.
The Fed’s goal in trying to cool the economy is to rein in inflation, and price increases have been receding: Over the past six months, inflation data have been close to normal.
But that has come without much of a broader economic slowdown. Job openings have come down and the housing market slowed in reaction to higher rates, but both hiring and consumer spending have remained surprisingly resilient.
Mr. Powell suggested this week that the Fed would like to see more evidence that inflation was coming under control before it begins to cut interest rates and that it was unlikely to have enough data to feel confident in that before the March meeting.
Markets sharply dialed back the chances of a rate cut at that gathering following the January jobs data.
Notably, Mr. Powell said that the Fed was willing to be patient — rather than wary and reactive — as it waits for wage growth to slow to normal levels. Some economists think that the relatively quick pace of wage gains could prevent inflation from stabilizing at 2 percent over time, if it were to continue.
“I think the labor market by many measures is at or near normal, but not totally back to normal,” Mr. Powell said. “Job openings are not quite back to where they were,” and wage increases “are not quite back to where they were.”
He added that wage increases “probably will take a couple of years to get all the way back, and that’s OK.”
Given Mr. Powell’s comments — and how much inflation had come down in recent months — Kathy Bostjancic, the chief economist at Nationwide, said that the Fed could still proceed with rate cuts this year even with a very strong labor market. She expects a move lower in May or June.
“It seems like inflation is the primary driver,” Ms. Bostjancic said, versus the strength in the fresh jobs numbers. “This should have a very modest impact on the timing — and even the degree — of rate cuts.”
1 hour ago
After today’s revisions, employers added more than 3 million jobs in 2023. That makes it the best year for job growth since 1999, not counting the immediately preceding two years (when employment was emerging from its pandemic hole).
1 hour ago
One of the most remarkable bits from this jobs report? A jump in average hourly earnings to 4.5 percent on an annual basis. That underlines how “real,” inflation-adjusted, wage gains, which lagged behind price increases for nearly two years, have now been in positive territory over the past several months.
2 hours ago
“This is not a report that is commensurate with cutting in March,” said Lauren Goodwin, an economist a chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. Investors’ bets have shifted sharply to the Fed’s first cut to interest rates now coming in May. “We have to take it for what it is,” Ms. Goodwin said. “It’s a good report.”
2 hours ago
Health care and social assistance again made up a big chunk of job growth, accounting for more than 100,000 of the 353,000 jobs added last month. The public sector was also a big contributor, adding 36,000 jobs.
2 hours ago
Some economists have been concerned that job growth has been narrowing, with only a few sectors accounting for a large share of the growth. Those concerns won’t be front and center today given the exceptional overall growth. But they may not go away entirely.
2 hours ago
Stocks are slipping and bond yields are shooting higher after an unexpectedly fast pace of hiring in January, coupled with strong wage growth. The numbers are likely to dampen expectations of interest rate cuts coming anytime soon, with the yield on the two-year Treasury bond, which is sensitive to changes in rate expectations, rising sharply.
2 hours ago
Well THAT is a surprise. U.S. employers added a whopping 353,000 jobs in January, far more than forecasters were expecting.
2 hours ago
Estimates for November and December were also revised up, by a combined 126,000 jobs.
2 hours ago
Ahead of the fresh jobs data, stock futures, which give investors the ability to bet on the market ahead of the official start of trading, are rising. It’s been a topsy-turvy week for the market, with the S&P 500 still on course to post it’s fourth consecutive week of gains.