As the war in Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year, US President Donald Trump has made clear which world leader he thinks can help America end the conflict: Vladimir Putin’s ally Xi Jinping.
“Hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine … they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them,” Trump told political and business elites at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month.
Trump expressed that hope, he has repeatedly said, in a call with the Chinese leader days before being sworn in last month – and it’s a subject that could be raised in the coming days as officials from around the world gather in Munich for an annual security conference.
While Trump may have complicated his plan to orchestrate peace alongside Xi by imposing a blanket 10% tariff on Chinese imports into the United States earlier this month, the war in Ukraine could be a rare issue of collaboration – especially as Beijing looks to avert deepening trade frictions.
“Given the stakes on US-China relations, if Trump prices China’s cooperation as the one critical issue that could improve US-China relations, I think China will be very tempted … (and could) play a helpful role,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. At the same time, she added, Beijing will be wary of undermining its alignment with Russia.
China has long sought to position itself as a potential peace broker in the conflict –promoting its own vaguely-worded proposal to settle the war. But in the West, its bid has so far been overshadowed by another reality: Beijing’s abiding support for President Putin’s Russia.
The stakes would be high for Xi to risk damaging that partnership, which the Chinese leader has built up as a critical part of his broader goals to counter pressure from the West and reshape a world order in China’s favor.
And a negotiating table where Xi has a prominent seat is also one where Putin, not Trump, has a staunch partner – a reality that Washington would have to navigate carefully if it doesn’t want to risk isolating European allies or reach a solution that’s unacceptable to Ukraine, analysts say.
“The real outcome that Beijing would like to avoid is a very much weakened Russia,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. “Because then … (Beijing) would be lacking one major partner.”
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Couples hug each other during a group wedding at the Harbin Ice-Snow World in Harbin, northeast China’s Heilongjiang Province on January 6, 2025.
Zhang Tao/Xinhua/Getty Images
Weddings crash
The number of new marriages recorded in China fell to a record low last year, despite sweeping government efforts to encourage young people to tie the knot and have babies to halt demographic decline in the world’s second-largest economy.
Some 6.1 million couples registered their marriages in 2024, a plunge of 20.5% from the previous year, according to data released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs. It marks a record low since the ministry started releasing the statistics in 1986.
Meanwhile, the data showed a slight increase in the number of divorces. Last year, nearly 2.6 million couples registered for divorce, an increase of 28,000 from 2023.
