Democrats have coasted to victory on the coattails of abortion rights since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, clearing the way for a host of restrictive policies and outright bans to take effect in red states across the country. Abortion was a key factor in Democrats’ strong performance in both the 2022 midterms and last fall’s state contests, and party leaders believe it could provide a similar boost this year, particularly in places like Arizona and Florida, where restrictions have only recently taken effect.

        We’re looking for a boost here, folks. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

I’m not sure whether that’s a realistic expectation. A majority of voters continue to favor some form of legal abortion, but few of them consider it the most important issue in this year’s presidential election. Most are more focused on immigration, inflation and a general sense of disillusionment with the existing political system — all things that tend to favor Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular (criminal cases notwithstanding). It’s not that abortion won’t help Democrats in November. It’s just a question of how much.

Like basically everything in modern American politics, the impact will vary from state to state. Democrats will likely get the biggest boost in states where abortion is literally on the ballot, including Arizona, Florida and Montana. That support could be crucial for vulnerable candidates in swing districts, particularly those running for the U.S. House of Representatives, officials told our D.C. bureau.

“We’ve seen huge turnout as a result of that over and over in elections since November of 2022,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene told reporters. “And I have no doubt we’re going to continue to see that all the way through.”

DCCC chair Suzan DelBene is optimistic. I can’t relate. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The salience of the issue in other states depends on other factors. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule this summer on a pair of abortion-related cases — one that could restrict access to a key abortion drug, and another that could make it harder for doctors to perform abortions to save patients’ lives in states that otherwise ban the procedure. Those decisions, likely to come just months ahead of the election, will impact voters across the country, potentially helping Democrats reiterate their plans to codify nationwide protections for abortion if they manage to retake the House.

“That will be one of our top priorities, to make sure that we pass the Women’s Health Protection Act again,” DelBene said. “But I’m also hopeful that we will keep the Senate and be able to move forward.”

There’s … not a lot to be hopeful about here. The Senate is probably a lost cause (looking at you, Joe Manchin), and while the House is technically in play, the math (for now) favors Republicans. Should that pattern hold, the best outcome for Democrats is a split Congress, where Republicans would maintain enough power to nix any attempt at substantive abortion protections.

But maybe they won’t? In Virginia, GOP congressional hopefuls have acquiesced to the shifting politics of abortion by declining to support a national ban, saying the issue should be left to the states. Accordingly, all four support the restrictions enacted at the state level, the Virginia Mercury reported.Remember when Tim Kaine was almost vice president? I’m not sure Tim Kaine does, either. (Photo by Graham Moomaw/Virginia Mercury)

The self-described “pro-life” candidates — former congressional nominee Hung Cao, lawyer Jonathan Emord, Army veteran Eddie Garcia and ex-Ron DeSantis staffer Scott Parkinson — are vying to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine, a popular Democrat who co-sponsored a bipartisan proposal to enshrine abortion protections into federal law. That’s likely a nonstarter for his challengers, at least one of whom (it’s Cao) has compared abortion to the “evils” of war. But so is a national abortion ban, they said. (Even Cao.) Most offered blanket statements, except for Parkinson, who blamed Democrats for what he described as attempting “to stoke fear and make the 2024 election about abortion.”

“But it’s not about abortion because abortion is a state issue,” he said.

This seems to be a recent pivot for Parkinson, who told a radio host in October that he’d vote in favor of a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy because “it would ultimately protect life.” The switch didn’t come up when he spoke to the Mercury, possibly because there were no Democrats nearby to make appropriately scary noises.

Here’s the thing: There isn’t really a need to drum up fear about abortion bans, because abortion bans are already scary. Just ask Janice Robinson, who endured what she described as a “back-alley abortion” at the age of 15 because her mother wasn’t aware that Roe v. Wade had affirmed the legality of the procedure two years earlier. Robinson suffered complications, including extreme blood loss. Later, at home, she fainted, per NC Newsline.

Women: Forever explaining things that really should not need to be explained. (Photo by Clayton Henkel/NC Newsline)

“You’re probably thinking next that I was taken to the hospital,” she told a crowd outside of the North Carolina General Assembly on Thursday. “No, I was not. My mother nursed me back to health in our home.”

It was a “nightmare,” she said. And it could become the norm in North Carolina if Republicans maintain their legislative supermajorities, according to Democrats, who noted that reproductive care across the state has already suffered under a 12-week abortion ban approved last year by GOP lawmakers. One pregnant patient was turned away from an emergency room and gave birth en route to another hospital. Her baby did not survive, said state Rep. Julie von Haefen, a Democrat from Wake County.

“Patients have received substandard care for miscarriages, ectopic pregnancies, and other treatments because of the uncertainty created by restrictive laws like this,” she said. “Abortion bans create a culture of fear that keeps doctors from providing the standard of care that they were trained to provide.”

Things could get far worse, warned state Sen. Lisa Grafstein. Legislative Republicans have already declined to support bills to protect in vitro fertilization and contraception, as well as a proposed ballot referendum to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, has called for a so-called heartbeat bill and identified a six-week abortion ban as the state’s “next goal.” In response, Planned Parenthood pledged to spend $10 million in North Carolina ahead of the November election.

Voters have a clear choice to make, Grafstein said.

“The 2024 elections truly are shaping up as a contest between a small number of extremists who want to control our bodies, and the freedoms that we’ve all come to take for granted in our country but are now under attack,” she said.