Russia helped end a 2020 war and its troops policed the cease-fire. But with a new crisis in the Caucasus heating up, Moscow, distracted and weakened by Ukraine, has not intervened.
In late 2020, when Russian President Vladimir V. Putin mediated the conclusion of a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasus and deployed 2,000 Russian peacekeepers between the two sides, it appeared to be a strategic masterstroke.
The agreement granted Russia a military presence in one post-Soviet country, Azerbaijan, while increasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia as a security provider. It positioned Mr. Putin as a mediator and appeared to validate his claim to Russia’s rightful status as the only force capable of maintaining calm in the former Soviet realm.
The dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh area of Azerbaijan is heating up again, but Russia has not intervened because it is preoccupied and weakened by the war in Ukraine. Azerbaijanis, in defiance of the Russian presence, are testing if Moscow is still able and resolute to impose its will on smaller neighbours despite its struggles in Ukraine.
Since December 12, the mountain road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia has been closed by Azerbaijani activists claiming to oppose unlawful mining in the region. Armenians accuse Azerbaijan of orchestrating the protests and criticise Russian peacekeepers for failing to maintain the road’s accessibility.
Farhad Mammadov, a pro-government analyst in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, stated that Russia’s resources in the region are becoming increasingly restricted. “Russia is deteriorating”
