Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas don’t agree on much. But there are two ways in which they do: first, they both reject a two-state solution; and second, when it comes to a deal to bring back the 100-plus hostages Hamas abducted on October 7, both sides want to have their cake and eat it.
Hamas is demanding Israel withdraw all its troops from Gaza and release vast numbers of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. Netanyahu responded on Tuesday: “We will not withdraw the IDF from the Gaza Strip and we will not release thousands of terrorists. None of this will happen. What will happen? Total victory.”
Both are likely to be disappointed. Negotiators have reportedly agreed on a “framework” for a deal. Phase one would see a six-week pause in fighting, during which civilian hostages would be released; three Palestinian prisoners would be freed for each one. A higher ratio would be applied in later phases, when IDF soldiers and bodies of dead hostages would be released, perhaps alongside a longer truce.
Yet whatever the contours of a final agreement, there are no good options for Netanyahu. On the one side, the families of hostages – especially female ones who may have been sexually abused in captivity – are pressuring him to do whatever it takes to bring them all home.
On the other side are his far-right coalition partners; Itamar Ben Gvir, the firebrand National Security Minister, said on Tuesday he’d bring down the government if it agreed to a “reckless” deal with Hamas.
For Netanyahu, this is a problem. The latest polling by Israel Channel 12 found his popularity continuing to plunge; elections would very probably see him ejected from office. To avoid further harming his prospects, Israel’s prime minister will have noticed the same poll found that 50% of Israelis oppose a hostage deal that would see a 45-day truce and the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, while 38% were in favor.
Yet even without Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu would still have the numbers in cabinet to push a hostage deal through. And even if he didn’t, opposition leader Yair Lapid says he’d step in to support the prime minister on this issue.
Many things could yet happen to kibosh a hostage agreement: US retaliation to a deadly drone strike by Iran-backed militias being one of many (Iran is also Hamas’ patron). But optimism that a deal could be done has arguably never been higher. Perhaps Hamas and Israel will find something else on which they agree?
