Groups that rose up against the military after its February 2021 power grab say air raids are a sign of its weakness, not strength.
Resistance to military rule in Myanmar has been defined by optimism.
When the military first seized power on February 1, 2021, the mass peaceful protests that emerged were reminiscent of a jubilant street party. Demonstrators sang in the streets, wore silly costumes and carried humorous signs.
There were no illusions about what might come next in a country where the armed forces have a history of brutality against those that oppose them. One protester said they were prepared to suffer 100 or even 1,000 deaths to see the military defeated.
Two years on, some civilians have taken up arms and joined forces with ethnic armed groups that have been fighting for greater autonomy for years. The country now appears embroiled in a fully-fledged civil war and the military is increasingly using air power and heavy weaponry against their poorly-armed opponents.
Some estimates put the 2022 death toll at more than 20,000, including civilians and fighters – second only to Ukraine – but those determined to push the generals from power remain hopeful.
“Some of our comrades have died in battle but giving up now is not an option,” said Albert, a battalion commander for the anti-coup Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), which primarily operates in Kayah State and southern Shan State, near the Thai border.
“There will be a breakthrough in 2023 if we can keep current momentum.”
New analysis (PDF) released on the eve of the coup anniversary by Tom Andrews, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, found there had been some 10,000 attacks and armed clashes between the military and opponents since the coup, and violent incidents in at least 78 percent of townships between July and December 2022.
While that suggests the regime is no closer to cementing its grip on the country, it does not look to be on the verge of collapse either.
“A new equilibrium has emerged. There must be significant developments on either side to change the current stalemate,” said Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, who has years of experience on conflict in Myanmar.
