Mongolia faces increasing climate change impacts, including rising temperatures, shifting precipitation, and more frequent extreme weather events, such as dzuds (harsh winters following dry summers). These changes threaten rural communities that rely on livestock and natural resources.

Pastoralist communities are particularly vulnerable as their livelihoods depend on livestock, water sources, and pastures, all of which are susceptible to the unpredictable shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. The remoteness of many rural areas compounds their vulnerability, limiting access to essential resources and support systems.

Effective climate adaptation requires locally informed measures developed through collaboration with stakeholders and backed by thorough climate risk assessments. A project by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting the Ministry of Environment and Tourism of Mongolia and its Climate Change Cooperation and Research Center to assess climate risks, inform Mongolia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and develop adaptation measures in three key aimags: Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge.

How were climate risks assessed in Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge aimags?

Climate risk assessment is critical to mitigating the risks associated with climate change. The climate risk assessments in these aimags used a multi-sectoral approach focused on three sub-sectors: water resources management, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, and ecotourism. Key steps included:

1. Climate data collection and analysis: Indicators, such as air temperature, precipitation, and hydrology, were analyzed using a 1991-2020 climate baseline, with additional historical trend analysis, following World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines.
2. Risk identification: Indicators, including changes in river flows, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, and ecotourism vulnerability, were mapped based on geographic and climatic factors. A Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) evaluated hazard interactions with system vulnerability, exposure, and adaptive capacity, assessing risk by likelihood and severity.
3. Climate projections: Future climate scenarios were developed using simulations from global climate models and local meteorological data.
4. Adaptation measures: Measures were identified through consultations with local stakeholders, including community leaders, local government officials, and sectoral experts, ensuring local relevance and feasibility.

What are the specific climate risks identified in these aimags?

Arkhangai

Arkhangai Province, located in central Mongolia, is known for its mountainous terrain, including the Khangai Mountains, and its rich natural resources. The province covers an area of 55,313 km² and has a population of around 95,000 people. Its economy is largely based on agriculture, particularly animal husbandry. Arkhangai is also famous for natural landmarks like Terkhiin Tsagaan Lake, which attract ecotourism and offer rich biodiversity.

Between 1961 and 2020, average temperatures increased by 1.8°C to 2.3°C. Hot summer days above 30°C have become more frequent, and the number of cold days below -30°C has also risen.

Bayankhongor

Located in southwestern Mongolia, this province covers a vast area of 115,977 square kilometers and is geographically diverse, featuring the Khangai Mountains, central steppe, and the Gobi Desert. The economy is traditionally based on livestock, and the province is rich in wildlife and natural attractions, such as the Khaliut hot springs and several saline lakes.

Bayankhongor has an extreme continental climate with wide temperature variations. Winter temperatures can drop to -49°C, while summer temperatures can reach 44.9°C. Over the past 30 years, the region has warmed by 2.2-2.4°C. Hot days above 25°C and 30°C have become more common, increasing drought risk and livestock stress. Cold spells below -30°C have generally decreased, except in some areas. Annual precipitation averages only 135.3 mm, mostly occurring in summer. The region is prone to dzuds, heatwaves, and wildfires.

Selenge

Selenge is a province in northern Mongolia, bordered by Russia, and named after the Selenge River. Covering 41,152 square kilometers with a population of approximately 108,000, the aimag is known for its agricultural productivity, rich natural resources, and scenic landscapes, including the Selenge-Orkhon forest steppe.

Selenge experiences an extreme continental, humid-cool climate, with average annual temperatures ranging from -1.5°C to 1.5°C. Over the past 60 years, temperatures have risen by 1.8-2.2°C, with a notable increase in hot days above 25°C and a decrease in extremely cold days below -30°C. Precipitation has slightly increased but remains unevenly distributed. The region faces natural hazards like floods, droughts, and forest fires, posing risks to the local environment and communities.

Recommendations

Addressing climate risks requires adaptation measures developed collaboratively with local stakeholders and grounded in thorough climate risk assessments.

For these aimags, the assessment suggests a focus on building climate resilience in water management, biodiversity conservation, and ecotourism, while supporting the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. An important strategy is enabling communities to identify and implement solutions that best meet their needs. For example, this project provided small grants to 28 local civil society organizations, which improved water access, promoted sustainable agriculture, and created new economic opportunities.

Enhance water resource management in vulnerable areas

In Arkhangai and Selenge, efforts focus on strengthening water governance, including watershed rehabilitation, spring protection, and rainwater harvesting for herder communities. In Bayankhongor, where groundwater is crucial, there is an emphasis on planning for sustainable extraction, exploring artificial recharge, and accessing deeper groundwater sources to address drought. Flood management strategies, including flood barriers and early warning systems, are also being implemented in flood-prone areas, particularly in aimag centers and soums near rivers.

Strengthen biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration

Conservation efforts prioritize protecting rare and endemic species and expanding protected areas in sensitive regions. Restoring degraded pastures and forests is critical, particularly in Arkhangai and Selenge, where ecosystems such as Khangai mountain meadows and the Selenge-Orkhon forest steppe face threats. These initiatives help conserve endangered species while supporting national and international biodiversity targets and addressing resource access challenges.

Foster community engagement in climate adaptation

Awareness campaigns and educational programs engage local communities, including schools and herder groups, in biodiversity conservation, ensuring adaptation strategies are both technically sound and socially accepted.

Promote sustainable ecotourism for livelihood diversification

In Arkhangai and Bayankhongor, community-based ecotourism provides alternative livelihood options for herders, reducing pressure on natural resources. In Selenge, cross-border ecotourism is being developed with neighboring regions. These efforts aim to promote environmental conservation, support local production, and celebrate nomadic culture.

Develop climate-resilient tourism infrastructure

Investments focus on enhancing the resilience of tourism infrastructure, such as camps and guesthouses in flood-prone areas, and on improving sanitation and waste management systems to reduce environmental impacts. By focusing on community-driven solutions, these measures address immediate climate impacts and promote long-term sustainability. Future efforts should prioritize capacity building, knowledge sharing, and scaling successful interventions to ensure resilience across Mongolia’s rural communities in a changing climate.