Growth Outlook Brighter, but Challenges Remain

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China’s economic development over the past few decades has been remarkable, but these achievements have been accompanied by imbalances and headwinds to growth have emerged, said IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath in a press conference on China’s Article IV consultation.

“The authorities recognize these challenges and are focused on achieving high quality growth,” said Gopinath. “In our view, a more comprehensive policy approach would help China navigate the headwinds facing the economy.”

The Fund projects that China’s economy will grow by 5 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025. This reflects upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points for both years compared to the April World Economic Outlook projections, driven by a strong first quarter GDP growth in 2024 and recent policy measures.

The ongoing housing market correction, necessary for steering the sector towards a more sustainable path, must continue, said Gopinath, welcoming measures the authorities have implemented to guide the property market transition, including recent policy announcements regarding lending support for affordable housing.

Near-term macroeconomic policies should be geared to support domestic demand and mitigate downside risks, she said, and fiscal policy should prioritize providing one-off central government financial support for the real estate sector. The monetary policy easing implemented so far in 2024 is welcome but there is scope for further easing, Gopinath noted.

Achieving high quality growth will require structural reforms, with key priorities including rebalancing the economy towards consumption by strengthening the social safety net and liberalizing the services sector to enable it to boost growth and create jobs, said Gopinath.

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