Movement
Ukraine’s war appears to be changing.

This winter, Russia has increased its missile attacks and mobilized approximately 300,000 troops. They’ve gathered in eastern Ukraine to attack.

Russia appears to want to seize the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine by overpowering Ukrainian forces with soldiers. My Donbas-reporting colleague Michael Schwirtz added, “This is what has the Ukrainians over themselves with worry.” Pavlo, a wounded Ukrainian soldier, told Michael, “It’s extremely difficult when you have 50 soldiers and they have 300.”

Today’s message provides one of our infrequent combat updates, with Times reporters worldwide answering two basic questions: Russia’s latest strategy? Ukraine’s?

Julian Barnes, a Times writer in Washington, told me, “There are indicators that both sides are going to do something in the weeks and months to come.

Russia’s plan
The war, almost a year old, has certainly gone worse than Vladimir Putin expected. Russia controls eastern and southern Ukraine but has been rebuffed elsewhere. U.S. officials estimate 200,000 injured or killed Russian troops.

Despite his shortcomings, Putin believes Russia’s situation will improve this year. Two dynamics underpin him. First, Russia is substantially larger than Ukraine and has more resources. Second, the war’s conclusion matters more to Ukraine and Russia than to Ukraine’s friends. That deficit could compel Ukraine’s allies to halt their weaponry and equipment supply.

“The goal of Putin is to wait out the West, then push again to grab so much land and kill so many Ukrainians that they negotiate an end to the war from a position of weakness and Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration falls,” Julian stated.

So far, the West has supported Ukraine. Modern tanks from the U.S., Britain, and Germany are the latest support. However, there are reasons to doubt the support’s longevity. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, has refused to proclaim that Ukraine must win the war. Republicans in the U.S. have criticized military aid, saying Ukraine is not America’s problem.

This week, Russia hopes to take Bakhmut, a Donbas city. (On Sunday, Russian fighters claimed to have taken a settlement outside the city.) From there, they hope to take over more of the region. “Russia is going to try to surround Donbas and cut it off and wrest it away totally from Ukraine,” Michael told Claire Moses.

New York Times
Given the weakness of the Russian military, U.S. officials doubt Russia’s bigger attempt to seize eastern Ukraine would succeed. The fight has depleted weapons and equipment, and the recently called up troops are primarily inexperienced.

“The Russians may want a huge operation,” Julian remarked. They lack resources.

Ukrainian strategy
For the rest of 2023, many observers expect a deadlock. The Biden administration and Ukraine’s authorities think a better conclusion is possible. This optimism is shown by the arrival of new military weapons like tanks.

Ukraine’s medium-term goal is to break Russia’s land bridge between its eastern territories, notably Donbas, and the Crimean Peninsula. Doing so would be symbolic for Ukraine and make Russia’s troop supply in both regions more expensive.

The land bridge’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility may be Ukraine’s first goal. Julian added, “The facility generates tons of electricity.” The counteroffensive’s largest benefit would be regaining it.

Ukraine has moved troops to Germany, Britain, and Poland to prepare for its upcoming push. They’re training in new units and using Western tanks, artillery tubes, and other gear.

What’s next
Some observers believe Russia’s latest effort began with the missile attacks. Others believe the war’s next phase will begin in spring, after mud season ends and the weather warms.

The next big diplomatic concern is whether Ukraine’s partners will provide combat jets like the F-16. President Biden and Scholz have refused. Even if they change their minds, the jets won’t aid Ukraine fast.

“To train someone on an F-16 is even tougher than training them on a tank,” said Steven Erlanger, The Times’ chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe. It would matter if it’s a long conflict. Regardless.”

More Ukraine news
These maps aid strategy analysis.
Angered by the war, some Russians fight for Ukraine.