The Canaduropean Union?

Mark Carney and Ursula von der Leyen smile at the camera while shaking hands. They are in front of a red-and-white flag and a blue flag.

President Trump has called Canada the 51st state, but will the country become instead the 28th state — of the European Union? The E.U.’s offer of an associate membership to Canada has prompted excitement and confusion in equal measure.

In January, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada declared a “rupture in the world order” and called for middle powers to band together. I wondered at the time what he meant, and this might be part of it. But what would bringing Canada into the E.U. mean? What would it mean for Europe, whose geography as much as its values have always defined its borders, at least so far? And for Canada, whose own geography is the reason it’s been so dependent on the United States?

Today my colleagues Matina Stevis-Gridneff, who’s on the road with Carney, and Jeanna Smialek, who covers the E.U., write about the trickiness of inventing a new world order.

 

By Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Jeanna Smialek

To many observers, a tighter alliance between the European Union and Canada seems to make sense.

Trump has waged a relentless trade war with Canada, challenging its economy. The U.S. has also pulled back support for NATO and Ukraine, leaving the E.U. scrambling to shore up its defenses. That vacuum has left both Canada and the E.U. looking for new partners as the alliances established after World War II shift.

The invitation for Canada to become an “associate member” of the E.U., made yesterday by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, shows just how intent these two traditional U.S. allies are on pursuing a stabler future by binding closer together. “We must urgently reimagine our partnerships,” von der Leyen said in a speech, as Carney sat next to her, beaming.

Between them, the E.U.’s 27 members and Canada have more than 490 million citizens, four of the world’s 10 largest economies, and a whole lot of desire to find partners outside the U.S. Carney often calls Canada “the most European non-European country.” E.U. leaders have spent years joking that it could join the bloc if only it were not on a far-flung landmass.

But yesterday’s announcement — which still falls well short of full membership — also highlighted the challenges involved in remaking the world order in real time. It may be easier said than done.

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A wide shot of a circular assembly hall with many people seated at blue desks in rows. A large European Union flag and various national flags are visible in the background.
The European Parliament in Strasbourg yesterday.Credit…Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The 28th state?

The E.U. hinges on deep, dense legal and procedural rules, built over decades by a group of nations that ceded sovereignty to one another, and to an unelected executive branch in Brussels.

Bringing in a country an ocean away is not straightforward.

Canada does not actually qualify for full E.U. membership, since, ultimately, it’s not in Europe. But bringing it closer to the E.U. is still complicated. And the initiative began raising eyebrows within minutes of being announced on the floor of the European Parliament.

The issue was the name. The label the European Union wants to confer on Canada, “associate member,” is not an existing type of partnership. It has no obvious legal basis, and it’s not entirely clear what it would even entail.

The term has drawn consternation from several member states, who see it as vague, untethered from legal frameworks and potentially unfair to countries that already have detailed legal agreements with the E.U. That includes candidate nations such as Albania and also Britain and Norway, who have deep trade and defense ties to the bloc.

Some in Canada don’t appear to love it either. The Conservative opposition leader seized on the term, arguing that if Canada was to never be the 51st state of the U.S., it should also not become the 28th member state of the E.U.

Hours after von der Leyen spoke, the incoming Canadian ambassador to the E.U. said that Canada preferred “alliance for the future” to describe the emerging new bond with the E.U. “I think we’re still a ways away from actually landing on what we think the best way to describe it is,” he said.

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An aerial view of a port shows many yellow, orange, red, and blue containers. They are on a pier and loaded onto freight trains, with cranes and a ship nearby.
The port in Montreal.Credit…Andrej Ivanov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Middle powers, acting together?

Ultimately, most experts agree the point is the symbolism.

In the run-up to the speech, European officials said the bloc did not want Trump to perceive Europe’s new energized partnership with Canada as an anti-American move.

This was “not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength,” von der Leyen said.

Still — if this isn’t a move against the United States, then it’s certainly about it.

Carney gave a headline-grabbing speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. He argued that the world order that emerged from the Cold War was facing a “rupture, not a transition,” and that “middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

Yesterday’s announcement was a vivid demonstration of that strategy.

“It’s a big swing, politically and rhetorically,” said Jörn Fleck, a senior director focused on Europe at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “This is obviously signaling toward the U.S.” and “it’s also signaling to potential allies that the E.U. is willing to get more creative.”

Related: The E.U.-Canada news shows how Trump is upending global relationships in ways that will be difficult to undo, my colleagues write from Washington.


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A road with palm trees and vehicles under a bright blue sky. A blue banner on a pole advertises, "PROTECTION" and "FREE CONDOMS."
In Suva, Fiji, in April. Credit…Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
About Author: holly

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