DRC-Rwanda: Can Geneva talks break the cycle of war in eastern Congo?

Three officials clap at a table with flags behind them.

Goma, DR Congo – More than a year after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed an agreement intended to end their confrontation, the two countries are back at the negotiating table in Geneva. In eastern Congo, however, the guns have not gone quiet.

The dispute over the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), Rwanda’s military presence in Congolese territory and M23’s control of large parts of the east is now difficult to separate. While the DRC and Rwanda negotiate in Geneva, Kinshasa is pursuing a separate dialogue with the political alliance backing M23.

Under the Washington framework, Kinshasa agreed to a process aimed at neutralising the FDLR. The Congolese government says that process, including demobilisation measures, is under way.

But Rwandan President Paul Kagame described the agreement on the FDLR as “insufficient” in remarks at the end of last month.

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Patrick Muyaya, the Congolese minister of information and government spokesperson, rejected that assessment, saying Kinshasa is meeting its commitments while accusing Kigali of maintaining “expansionist ambitions” in eastern DRC.

“The work of neutralising the FDLR through demobilisation is being carried out in accordance with the Washington agreements,” Muyaya told Al Jazeera.

The disagreement is not simply over whether the FDLR process is sufficient. It reflects a deeper dispute over security and sovereignty.

Rwanda wants credible assurances that armed groups hostile to it will not operate from Congolese territory. Kinshasa argues that Rwanda’s security concerns cannot justify the presence of foreign forces on Congolese soil.

What Rwanda sees as a necessary security measure, Kinshasa sees as a threat to its sovereignty.

That mistrust is now at the centre of the Geneva talks.

Where does M23 fit into the peace process?

M23 is not a party to the Washington agreement, but it is central to the conflict that the agreement is supposed to help contain.

The group captured Goma in January 2025 and later took Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, dramatically altering the balance of power in eastern DRC.

M23 operates under the political umbrella of the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which has been involved in a separate Qatar-led dialogue with Kinshasa.

The Geneva process is focused on the confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda, while the Qatar process addresses the Congolese government’s dispute with the AFC-M23 alliance.

Yet on the ground, those conflicts cannot easily be separated.

M23’s territorial control shapes Kinshasa’s calculations, while the Congolese military response affects the security environment along Rwanda’s border. Rwanda’s concerns about armed groups in eastern DRC are also bound up with its position towards M23, while Kinshasa continues to demand the withdrawal of Rwandan forces.

A settlement between Kinshasa and Kigali could reduce regional tensions, but it would not necessarily end the fighting inside eastern DRC.

The talks may be taking place on separate tracks, but what happens on one can affect the others.

What does the diplomacy look like from Goma?

In Goma, where residents have lived through repeated cycles of fighting and displacement, diplomacy is ultimately being measured against what happens outside the conference rooms.

About Author: holly

i.atiku@asyarfs.org

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