Iran’s government has in recent years weathered wave upon wave of nationwide protests challenging its rule by resorting to force. But for the first time, the country’s rulers face a more complex challenge: growing domestic unrest combined with an external military threat.
The government appears at a dead end in addressing both, with no clear strategy for reversing the economic collapse fueling protests, nor any signs that Iran’s leaders are willing to make the concessions on their nuclear program sufficient to appease Israel and the United States and ward off the risk of another round of strikes.
The protests have convulsed Iran for a week. Though they have not reached the size and scope of the last two major uprisings — one in 2022 led by women and another in 2019 set off by gasoline prices — they have rattled senior officials and drawn a prompt reaction from the United States and Israel.
President Trump threatened to intervene, saying in a social media post on Friday that if Iran killed “peaceful protesters,” the United States would come to their aid, adding, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
The Israeli foreign minister and several government officials have spoken out on behalf of the protesters. Gila Gamliel, Israel’s minister of innovation, science and technology, said in a video posted on social media on Thursday, “Israel is with you, and we support you in every way possible.”
On Saturday, the U.S. military attacked Venezuela, one of Iran’s closest allies, and captured the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro. At a news conference where Mr. Trump said that Washington planned to run the South American country for the immediate future, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that other countries should take note.
Iran’s leaders and political figures have sounded rattled and shocked. The ramifications for Tehran cannot be overstated.
Ali Gholhaki, a hard-line pundit in Iran, said in a phone interview that the dire state of the economy had played a central role in the downfall of the leaders in both Venezuela and Syria, creating a maelstrom of public discontent and dispirited security forces. “The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here,” Mr. Gholhaki said. “When the anti-riot police, security forces and the military are struggling for their livelihood, the defense lines collapse.”
